With record highs in sight, stocks face roadblocks

NEW YORK (Reuters) - If Wall Street needs to climb a wall of worry, it will have plenty of opportunity next week.

Major U.S. stock indexes will make another attempt at reaching all-time records, but the fitful pace that has dominated trading is likely to continue. Next Friday's unemployment report and the hefty spending cuts that look like they about to take effect will be at the forefront.

The importance of whether equities can reach and sustain those highs is more than Wall Street's usual fixation on numbers with psychological significance. Breaking through to uncharted territory is seen as a test of investors' faith in the rally.

"It's very significant," said Bucky Hellwig, senior vice president at BB&T Wealth Management in Birmingham, Alabama.

"The thinking is, there's just not enough there for an extended bull run," he said. "If we do break through (record highs), then maybe the charts and price action are telling us there's something better ahead."

Flare-ups in the euro zone's sovereign debt crisis and next Friday's report on the U.S. labor market could jostle the market, though U.S. job indicators have generally been trending in a positive direction.

Small- and mid-cap stocks hit lifetime highs in February. Now the Dow Jones industrial average <.dji> and the S&P 500 <.spx> are racing each other to the top. The Dow, made up of 30 stocks, is about 75 points - less than 1 percent - away from its record close of 14,164.53, which it hit on October 9, 2007. The broader S&P is still 3 percent away from its closing high of 1,565.15, also reached on October 9, 2007.

The advantage may be in the Dow's court. So far in 2013, it has gained 7.5 percent, beating the S&P 500 by about 1 percent.

THE RALLY AND THE REALITY CHECK

The Dow's relative strength owes much to its unique make-up and calculation, as well as to investors' recent preference for buying value stocks likely to generate steady reliable gains, rather than growth stocks.

But the more defensive stance illustrates how stock buyers are getting concerned about this year's rally. While investors don't want to miss out on gains, they're picking up companies that are less likely to decline as much as high-flying names - if a market correction comes.

The Russell Value Index <.rav> is up 7.6 percent for the year so far, outpacing the Russell Growth Index's <.rag> 5.7 percent rise. Within the realm of the S&P 500, the consumer staples sector led the market in February, gaining 3.1 percent.

There is some concern that growth-oriented names are being eclipsed by defensive bets, said Ryan Detrick, senior technical strategist at Schaeffer's Investment Research in Cincinnati.

"This isn't a be-all and end-all sell signal by any means, but we would feel much more comfortable if some of the more aggressive areas, like technology and small caps, would start to gain some leadership here," Detrick said.

Signs that investors are becoming concerned about the rally's pace is evident in the options market, where the ratio of put activity to call activity has recently shifted in favor of puts, which represent expectations for a stock to fall.

"We are seeing some put hedging in the financials, building up for the past month," said Henry Schwartz, president of options analytics firm Trade Alert in New York.

The put-to-call ratio representing an aggregate of about 562 financial stocks is 1:1, when normally, calls should be outnumbering puts.

Investors have no shortage of reasons to crave the relative safety of blue chips and defensive stocks. Although markets have mostly looked past uncertainty over Washington's plans to cut the deficit, fiscal policy negotiations still pose a risk to equities.

The $85 billion in spending cuts set to begin on Friday is expected to slow economic growth this year if policymakers do not reach a new deal. Markets so far have held firm despite the wrangling in Washington, but tangible economic effects could pinch stock prices going forward.

The International Monetary Fund warned that full implementation of the cuts would probably take at least 0.5 percentage point off U.S. growth this year.

EASY MONEY AND TEPID HIRING

Investors will also take in a round of economic data at a time when concerns are percolating that the market is being pushed up less by fundamentals and more by loose monetary policy around the world.

The main economic event will be Friday's non-farm payrolls report for February. The U.S. economy is expected to have added 160,000 jobs last month, only a tad higher than in January, in a sign the labor market is healing at a slow pace. The U.S. unemployment rate is forecast to hold steady at 7.9 percent.

While lackluster data has been a catalyst in the past for stock market gains as investors bet it would ensure continued stimulus from the Federal Reserve, that sentiment may be wearing thin.

Markets stumbled last week following worries that the Fed might wind down its quantitative easing program sooner than expected.

"It shows the underpinning of the market is being driven at this point by monetary policy," Hellwig said.

With investors questioning what is behind the rally, it will make a run to record highs even more significant, Hellwig added.

"There's smart people that are in the bull camp and the bear camp and the muddle-through camp," Hellwig said. "The fact that you can statistically, using historical evidence, make a case for going higher, lower, or staying the same makes this number very important this time around."

(Wall St Week Ahead runs every Friday. Comments or questions on this column can be emailed to: leah.schnurr(at)thomsonreuters.com)

(Reporting by Leah Schnurr; Additional reporting by Doris Frankel in Chicago; Editing by Jan Paschal)

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Malaysia Said to Open Fire on Armed Filipinos

MANILA — Shots have been fired in a tense standoff between a group of armed Filipinos and Malaysian police officer who have them surrounded in a remote northeast area of Malaysia, a Philippine presidential spokesman said Friday.

The group, which is occupying an isolated village in attempt to revive a historical claim to the area, tried early Friday morning to breach the perimeter established by Malaysian police, said Ricky Carandang, a Philippine presidential spokesman.

The group claims the territory in Malaysia’s Sabah State as its own, and has rejected a plea from President Benigno S. Aquino III of the Philippines to leave. The group’s seizure of the coastal village has complicated relations between the Philippines and Malaysia.

After the group tried to breach the perimeter, the Malaysian police fired warning shots to force them to return to the cordoned off area and no one was injured, Mr. Carandang said.

“They apparently tried to leave the area and were stopped,” Mr. Carandang said by telephone. “We have conflicting reports but this is what we have verified so far.”

The group’s leader, who is based in Manila, claimed on Friday that the Malaysian police opened fire on them. The leader, Prince Rajah Mudah Agbimuddin Kiram, told the Philippine radio station DZBB that the group was fighting back and that there had been Filipino casualties.

The episode began Feb. 12, when the group, which is seeking to revive a historical claim to part of Borneo, arrived by boat from the Philippines and seized the land. The Philippines on Monday sent a navy vessel to the area with medical and diplomatic personnel to pick up the group or escort them back to the Philippines, hoping to resolve the situation.

Mr. Aquino said Tuesday that his government had sent emissaries to meet with Mr. Kiram to resolve the issue.

“These are your people, and it behooves you to recall them,” Mr. Aquino said to the leader in his Tuesday statement. “It must be clear to you that this small group of people will not succeed in addressing your grievances, and that there is no way that force can achieve your aims.”

The Philippines has been coordinating with the Malaysian government to resolve the issue peacefully, but Malaysian police officials in the area where the standoff is taking place had earlier suggested that they were prepared to use force if necessary.

Floyd Whaley reported from Manila, and Gerry Mullany from Hong Kong.

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American Idol Reveals Its Top 20

By Steve Helling

02/28/2013 at 11:20 PM EST

From left: Randy Jackson, Mariah Carey, Ryan Seacrest, Nicki Minaj, Keith Urban

Michael Becker/FOX

American Idol has been on the air for 12 seasons. From the early days of Kelly Clarkson, the judges continually hounded the contestants on song choice. Simon Cowell (remember him?) would criticize contestants for being "cabaret," "old-fashioned" and, worst of all, "boring." Some of this season's contestants have been watching Idol since they were in elementary school, which makes it all the more inexplicable that they still choose to sing songs like Peggy Lee's "Fever," which is 57 years old.

The show began with the 10 contestants rising from the floor, Hunger Games-style. Five of them will continue, while five of them met their end. Find out who made it through to the next round …
Spoiler Alert! The final picks for the Top 20 follow:

Cortez Shaw: His ballad arrangement of David Guetta's "Titanium" was excellent – and it was a nice change to hear a song that was current and relevant. "Your range surprised me today," judge Randy Jackson said. "When you hit those big notes, I was shocked."

Burnell Taylor: He's lost 40 lbs. since auditioning, and singing John Legend's "This Time," he brought down the house – despite oddly exaggerated hand movements. "I would pay to hear you sing," said Nicki Minaj, sharing the best compliment of the night. Mariah Carey was also pleased, simply saying, "This was fantastic."

Lazaro Arbos: After delivering an emotional performance of Keith Urban's "Tonight I Want to Cry," the 21-year-old singer from Naples, Fla., was unanimously sent through to the next round. The Cuban-born Arbos has arguably the season's most poignant backstory, with a severe stutter that vanishes when he sings. Minaj remains a big fan, telling him: "You feel it. You stay in it. Don't change nothing."

Nick Boddington: The New York City bartender performed "Say Something Now" by James Morrison and did a passable – if unremarkable – job. "I kept waiting for the feeling of being connected to you as a person," said Urban. Carey agreed, saying, "I needed to feel you more connected to the song."

Vincent Powell: Singing Lenny Williams's "'Cause I Love You," he effortlessly broke into a falsetto that elicited cheers from the audience. After calling him a "sexy old-fashioned" singer, Minaj added, "I could envision a whole bunch of 50-year-olds throwing their panties at you." Powell, who works his day job as a church worship leader, laughed nervously.

And yes, it was guys' night, but finalist Zoanette Johnson made a cameo when she stood up and cheered Powell's performance, prompting host Ryan Seacrest to run over with a microphone. (For a brief moment, It felt like a '90s-era episode of Ricki Lake, which is actually a very good thing.) "Get it, Papa Smurf," Johnson screamed. "You go get it."

Leave it to Zoanette to steal the show on guy's night.

Tonight's finalists will join Charlie Askew, Curtis Finch Jr., Paul Jolley, Elijah Liu and Devin Velez – and 10 female finalists – to sing for America's votes next week.

Who are you rooting for?

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Asian shares capped by China PMI slip, U.S. budget worry

TOKYO (Reuters) - Asian shares were capped on Friday, with sentiment dented by lackluster manufacturing data from China and worries over the economic fallout from Italy's political confusion as well as possible U.S. spending cuts.

European markets are seen narrowly mixed, with financial spreadbetters predicting London's FTSE 100 <.ftse>, Paris's CAC-40 <.fchi> and Frankfurt's DAX <.gdaxi> would open between a 0.1 percent rise and a 0.2 percent fall. Italy's main FTSE MIB <.ftmib> stock market index is expected to open down 0.2 percent. <.l><.eu/>

A 0.1 percent drop in U.S. stock futures also hinted at a weak Wall Street start. <.n/>

But losses were limited by renewed confidence that major central banks will keep taking stimulative steps to support their economies.

China's factory growth cooled in February to multi-month lows after domestic demand dipped to weigh on firms already hit by slack foreign sales, two surveys showed on Friday, underlining the country's patchy economic recovery. But it does not signal China's economy is slipping into another slowdown, analysts said.

China's February official purchasing managers' index (PMI) came in at 50.1, slightly below a 50.2 Reuters poll consensus and the 50.4 posted in January. A private survey showed the final HSBC PMI fell to 50.4 after seasonal adjustments from January's two-year high of 52.3, in line with a flash reading.

"While comfort can be sought from the fact that the Chinese economy remains in expansion territory, the dip from prior PMI readings does illustrate that the recovery is far from linear and that there are still a few bumps in the road," said Tim Waterer, senior trader at Sydney-based CMC Markets.

The MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan <.miapj0000pus> was down 0.1 percent, after ending February up 0.5 percent, showing muted reaction to Chinese data.

Australian shares <.axjo> slipped 0.4 percent, pulling back from 4-1/2-year highs touched in the previous session, as big miners lost ground on lower metal prices. South Korean markets were closed on Friday for a public holiday.

The Australian dollar, which is sensitive to data from China, Australia's largest trading partner, was up 0.2 percent to $1.0230.

Japan's Nikkei stock average <.n225> erased earlier losses to rise 0.5 percent, lifted by expectations for strong reflationary measures from the Bank of Japan in coming months. <.t/>

Stocks in Indonesia edged higher to a fresh record. Data showed Indonesia's trade deficit narrowed slightly in January from the previous month as exports posted their smallest fall in nearly a year, reflecting recovering global demand and providing early hope that the nation's external balances may improve in 2013.

From Japan, Friday's data showed Japanese companies cut spending on plant and equipment in October-December by 8.7 percent from the same period last year, down for the first time in five quarters amid a slump in exports, showing the world's third-largest economy was still struggling to find a solid footing.

In contrast, a drop in new U.S. claims for jobless benefits last week and a sharp rise in factory activity in the Midwest in February suggested the U.S. economy is improving.

The relative outperformance of the world's leading economy over Japan's may soon turn the Japan-based yen selling into U.S.-led dollar buying, giving a fresh push higher in the dollar/yen, traders say.

The dollar inched up 0.1 percent to 92.65 against the yen.

One factor that could cloud such a positive outlook is the uncertainty over the possible extent of economic damage from the $85 billion in automatic across-the-board "sequestration" spending cuts in the United States set to begin taking effect on Friday.

"Financial markets are eerily calm about the issue. Nobody is talking about the sequestration, and I worry about the seeming lack of interest when market sentiment is far from stable after sharp swings following the Italian election," said Hiroshi Maeba, head of FX trading Japan at UBS in Tokyo.

He said reaction, if any, will likely come in equities and bonds first and spill over to forex, hitting risk-sensitive currencies which may possibly underpin the dollar.

The International Monetary Fund said on Thursday it would likely cut its 2013 growth forecasts for the United States by at least a 0.5 percentage point if the cuts are fully implemented. The IMF now projects that the U.S. economy will grow 2 percent this year.

"The $85 billion in spending cuts is simply too small to make much of a difference to the economy and although it could cause some problems, it will have no bearing on influencing investor allocations among different asset classes," said Ed Meir, an analyst at INTL FCStone, in a note.

U.S. crude fell 0.1 percent to $91.93 a barrel, after earlier hitting a 2013 low of $91.43. Brent crude fell 0.3 percent to $111.05 after falling to a six-week low of $110.86 earlier. Oil prices were weighed by concerns about the global economy and the strength of demand.

Spot gold inched down 0.1 percent to $1,578.81 an ounce after dropping more than 1 percent on Thursday and ending February with its fifth straight monthly drop, the longest string of monthly declines since 1996.

The euro was up 0.1 percent to $1.3074, but near a seven-week trough of $1.3018 plumbed earlier in the week.

(Additional reporting by Luke Pachymuthu and Rujun Shen in Singapore; Editing by Eric Meijer)

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India Ink: India’s Slowing Economy Forces Budget Decisions

NEW DELHI — Not too long ago, when India’s economy was roaring amid predictions of high growth rates for years to come, the finance minister could be forgiven for strutting during budget week. He got to march into India’s Parliament with the ceremonial briefcase bearing a budget stuffed with goodies.

But on Thursday, when the current finance minister, Palaniappan Chidambaram, arrives in Parliament, his steps will be heavier, and the mood is likely to be, too. Faced with slowing growth, persistent inflation and sagging investor confidence, India’s government is pinned between conflicting pressures: economists warn that tough steps are needed to avoid long-term fiscal problems, even as political leaders are leery of introducing unpopular measures before important elections this year.

On Wednesday, the government sought to change the pessimistic narrative, as the Finance Ministry released its annual economic survey and projected that economic growth would jump somewhere above 6 percent during the next fiscal year, predicting that the downturn was “more or less over and the economy is looking up.” Some economists were skeptical, given that similar rosy predictions in recent budgets have proved wrong.

“Let me remind you that last year the economic survey spoke of about 7.6 percent projected growth — and what we had was 5 percent growth,” said Ajay Bodke, head of investment strategy and advisory at Prabhudas Lilladher, a Mumbai brokerage. “That is not just a miss but a humongous miss.”

The consequences of the budget plans are especially high because India, once a darling of global investors and an anointed power-in-waiting, is struggling to regain its lost luster.

India’s estimated 5 percent growth rate for the current fiscal year compares with 8 percent in 2010. Ratings agencies have threatened to downgrade the country’s investment rating to “junk” status. Meanwhile, India’s political class has spent more than three years enmeshed in scandals, as a bickering Parliament has accomplished almost nothing.

“It’s a supercritical moment, actually,” said Rajiv Kumar, an economist with the Center for Policy Research in New Delhi. “If you get it right, and this is a budget that can shore up the government’s credibility, they can turn it around.”

For investors and business leaders, the question is whether the government will make tough calls to address the country’s large fiscal and account deficits, curb huge subsidies for diesel fuel and petroleum products, unclog bureaucratic bottlenecks on stalled manufacturing, energy and infrastructure projects and create incentives to entice new investment.

Only a year ago, Pranab Mukherjee, then finance minister, unveiled a budget now regarded by many analysts as a major mistake. Desperate to increase revenues, the government spooked investors by giving broad latitude for tax collectors to pursue multinationals for billions of dollars in new, unexpected taxes. Investment slowed markedly, while investors and political opponents complained that India’s coalition government, led by the Indian National Congress Party, was endangering one of the world’s fastest-growing economies.

“The economy is in a deep crisis at the moment,” said Yashwant Sinha of the opposition Bharatiya Janata Party, a former finance minister, “and I only hope the crisis doesn’t become any deeper with more pre-election sops.”

Mr. Sinha and many independent economists warn that the economy cannot afford a repeat of 2008, when the government was preparing for national elections the following year. Then, the pre-election budget was filled with big spending measures, including pay raises for government workers and the forgiveness of billions of dollars in loans to farmers. The government was easily re-elected in 2009, but the new spending contributed to a fiscal deficit that rose to roughly 6 percent, from about 2 percent the previous year.

Neha Thirani Bagri contributed reporting from Mumbai, India.

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American Idol Reveals Its Top 10 Women

TV Watch

American Idol

02/27/2013 at 10:45 PM EST

From left: Randy Jackson, Mariah Carey, Ryan Seacrest, Nicki Minaj, Keith Urban

Michael Becker/FOX

American Idol's's list of the top 10 women is complete!

After the first week of sudden-death rounds, the judges gave their stamp of approval to five more female singers Wednesday night. And they sent five others home.

Keep reading to find out who's in and who's out on Idol ...

Here are the five contestants who are moving on in the competition:

1. Zoanette Johnson: The Tulsa resident, 20, was the first to be put through by the judges, who showered her with praise for singing a spirited version of "Circle of Life" from The Lion King. Keith Urban declared her "queen of the jungle." Nicki Minaj told Zoanette, "You make me so emotional ... You're the person we're going to remember tonight."

2. Aubrey Cleland: After singing a slowed-down version of Beyoncé's "Sweet Dreams," Mariah Carey told Cleland, 19, "You're limitless." Nicki and Randy Jackson pointed out her commercial appeal. "Lookin' like a current artist, soundin' like one, feelin' like one," said Nicki of the performance.

3. Candice Glover: Taking on Aretha Franklin's "(You Make Me Feel Like) A Natural Woman" paid off for the singer, 23, who earned a standing ovation from Keith. Randy said she was "one of my favorite singers in the whole competition."

4. Breanna Steer: "You're extremely marketable and gorgeous and talented," Mariah told the singer, 18, after she sang a dramatic version of Jazmine Sullivan's "Bust Your Windows" that had Randy wanting to sign her up for a recording contract. "You got the whole package," he said. "You brought so much drama."

5. Janelle Arthur: She beat out the other country singer in the competition, Rachel Hale, for the final spot in the women's top 10 after singing Lady Antebellum's "Just a Kiss." Though Randy called Arthur, 23, his "favorite country singer in this competition," the other judges questioned her song choice. "[The song] doesn't give you a chance to really soar," Keith said. "The melody kept pulling you back."

These five will join the five female finalists announced last week – Kree Harrison, Amber Holcomb, Adriana Latonio, Angela Miller and Tenna Torres – as well as the five men – Charlie Askew, Curtis Finch Jr., Paul Jolley, Elijah Liu and Devin Velez. Ten more guys will sing Thursday (8 p.m. ET) and five will move on to round out season 12's top 20.

Did the judges make the right decisions? Sound off in the comments below.

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India Ink: A Difficult Budget Balancing Act for India

India’s fiscal budget will be announced on Thursday amid slowing economic growth, soaring inflation, a growing fiscal deficit and flagging investor confidence. But with national elections only a year away, analysts fear that instead of cutting the deficit, the government will buckle under political pressure and increase spending on social programs.

“As the country is going into an election period, there is a tendency to try to create a feel-good factor amongst the electorate by enhancing access to welfare schemes and income growth for the masses,” said Sujan Hajra, chief economist and executive director at Anand Rathi Financial Services.

The government has been under pressure to rein in spending as ratings agencies have warned that a failure to cut the deficit could result in a crippling downgrade to India’s sovereign debt.

“The need of the hour is a growth-supportive budget that reinforces reform initiatives and minimizes populist impulses that may act as a drain on the already stretched fiscal condition and raise a red flag for the ever-watchful rating agencies,” said Ajay Bodke, the head of investment strategy and advisory at Prabhudas Lilladher, a Mumbai brokerage.

India’s economy has slowed considerably in recent quarters. On Feb. 7, advance estimates released by India’s Central Statistics Office pegged the growth rate for the current fiscal year, which ends in March, at 5 percent, a significant drop from the central bank’s earlier projections of 5.5 percent and 5.8 percent, and down from over 8 percent in 2010.

In the second quarter of this financial year, the current account deficit reached a record high of $22.4 billion, or 5.4 percent of the gross domestic product, according to data released by the Reserve Bank of India in December.

Prime Minister Manmohan Singh attributed the slowdown to outside forces. “We are meeting against the background of global slowdown of economic activity which has also affected us,” he said in Parliament on Feb. 21. “The way we conduct the financial business now before Parliament will be a crucial determinant of our country’s ability to cope with the formidable challenges that our country faces.”

The government has introduced a series of measures to narrow the deficit, including a rise in passenger rail fares, an increase in fuel prices and the opening of the aviation and retail sectors for foreign direct investment.

Reducing the fiscal deficit has been a priority for the government in recent months. In October, India’s finance minister, Palaniappan Chidambaram, presented a plan  aimed at reducing the fiscal deficit over the next five years, which included a significant reduction in subsidies and tight controls on government expenditure.

In an interview with The Financial Times in January while in England to promote India to investors, Mr. Chidambaram said that the coming budget would be “responsible,” adding, “The red lines are that the fiscal deficit for the current year will be no more than 5.3 percent and the fiscal deficit for the next year will be no more than 4.8 percent.”

Additional measures to overhaul the economy are necessary to reach that target, analysts said. The government is likely to rely on a mix of revenue and spending measures, including proceeds from the divestment of state-run companies and telecom spectrum sales, an increase in indirect taxes and improved tax administration, predicted Leif Lybecker Eskesen, the chief economist for India at HSBC Global Research.

“Debt dynamics depend importantly on broader structural reforms progress, which is needed to raise the economy’s growth potential,” he said. “It is, therefore, imperative to continue and step up the reform push.”

What worries analysts in particular is the National Food Security Bill 2011, which aims to lower the cost of food for the poor.

“If the bill is passed by Parliament, the total food subsidy expense alone would be approximately $14.6 billion per year, or 12 percent of the annual budget,” said Akshay Mathur, head of research at Gateway House, a research institution in Mumbai. Total subsidy expenses, including fuel and fertilizer would be almost 20 percent of the budget, he added.

Critics of the bill argue that the legislation is being introduced with the sole intention of garnering votes for the Congress party in the national elections in 2014.

“There is definitely a political impetus behind the Food Security Bill, but the need is not only a political one,” said Mr. Mathur. “However, the question is how we can pay for it. At this point, given that we have a fiscal deficit and a current account deficit, any added expenditure is a pure drain on the government.”

Meanwhile, fear of a sovereign ratings downgrade by international credit rating agencies is haunting the government. “Rating agencies are also closely watching out for any further fiscal slippage,” said Dipen Shah, head of private client group research at Kotak Securities.

Ratings agencies are looking to the budget for signs of the Indian government’s commitment to fiscal consolidation and structural reform.

“The Union budget will be an important gauge of the government’s commitment to fiscal consolidation and reform in general,” said a report by Fitch Ratings on Feb. 4. “India’s patchy performance on policy implementation, and the approach of elections in 2014 could impede fiscal consolidation, suggesting political and implementation risk remain significant.”

Lalit Thakkar, a managing director at Angel Broking, said that perhaps the ratings agencies’ scrutiny will compel the government to act responsibly.

“We believe that the government cannot afford any adverse economic developments at this juncture on the back of the still-looming threat of sovereign ratings downgrade by credit rating agencies,” he said.

Given that a ratings downgrade from the lowest investment grade to junk status could significantly hamper capital flow, have an adverse impact on the currency, business confidence and the availability of international finance for the corporate sector, perhaps it is this threat that will prove pivotal.

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Bobby Brown Sentenced to 55 Days in Jail in Drunk Driving Case

02/26/2013 at 09:30 PM EST

Bobby Brown has been sentenced to 55 days in jail and four years probation in his most recent drunk driving arrest.

Brown, 44, was pulled over in Studio City, Calif., on Oct. 24 for driving erratically and was arrested when the officer detected "a strong scent of alcohol." He was charged with DUI and driving on a suspended license.

He was also arrested for driving under the influence in March of 2012.

Brown pled no contest to the charges on Tuesday, reports TMZ. He was also ordered to complete an 18-month alcohol treatment program.

The singer, who married Alicia Etheredge in Hawaii in June of 2012, must report to jail by March 20.

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Advanced breast cancer edges up in younger women

CHICAGO (AP) — Advanced breast cancer has increased slightly among young women, a 34-year analysis suggests. The disease is still uncommon among women younger than 40, and the small change has experts scratching their heads about possible reasons.

The results are potentially worrisome because young women's tumors tend to be more aggressive than older women's, and they're much less likely to get routine screening for the disease.

Still, that doesn't explain why there'd be an increase in advanced cases and the researchers and other experts say more work is needed to find answers.

It's likely that the increase has more than one cause, said Dr. Rebecca Johnson, the study's lead author and medical director of a teen and young adult cancer program at Seattle Children's Hospital.

"The change might be due to some sort of modifiable risk factor, like a lifestyle change" or exposure to some sort of cancer-linked substance, she said.

Johnson said the results translate to about 250 advanced cases diagnosed in women younger than 40 in the mid-1970s versus more than 800 in 2009. During those years, the number of women nationwide in that age range went from about 22 million to closer to 30 million — an increase that explains part of the study trend "but definitely not all of it," Johnson said.

Other experts said women delaying pregnancy might be a factor, partly because getting pregnant at an older age might cause an already growing tumor to spread more quickly in response to pregnancy hormones.

Obesity and having at least a drink or two daily have both been linked with breast cancer but research is inconclusive on other possible risk factors, including tobacco and chemicals in the environment. Whether any of these explains the slight increase in advanced disease in young women is unknown.

There was no increase in cancer at other stages in young women. There also was no increase in advanced disease among women older than 40.

Overall U.S. breast cancer rates have mostly fallen in more recent years, although there are signs they may have plateaued.

Some 17 years ago, Johnson was diagnosed with early-stage breast cancer at age 27, and that influenced her career choice to focus on the disease in younger women.

"Young women and their doctors need to understand that it can happen in young women," and get checked if symptoms appear, said Johnson, now 44. "People shouldn't just watch and wait."

The authors reviewed a U.S. government database of cancer cases from 1976 to 2009. They found that among women aged 25 to 39, breast cancer that has spread to distant parts of the body — advanced disease — increased from between 1 and 2 cases per 100,000 women to about 3 cases per 100,000 during that time span.

The study was published Tuesday in the Journal of the American Medical Association.

About one in 8 women will develop breast cancer in their lifetime, but only 1 in 173 will develop it by age 40. Risks increase with age and certain gene variations can raise the odds.

Routine screening with mammograms is recommended for older women but not those younger than 40.

Dr. Len Lichtenfeld, the American Cancer Society's deputy chief medical officer, said the results support anecdotal reports but that there's no reason to start screening all younger women since breast cancer is still so uncommon for them.

He said the study "is solid and interesting and certainly does raise questions as to why this is being observed." One of the most likely reasons is probably related to changes in childbearing practices, he said, adding that the trend "is clearly something to be followed."

Dr. Ann Partridge, chair of the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's advisory committee on breast cancer in young women, agreed but said it's also possible that doctors look harder for advanced disease in younger women than in older patients. More research is needed to make sure the phenomenon is real, said Partridge, director of a program for young women with breast cancer at the Harvard-affiliated Dana-Farber Cancer Institute.

The study shouldn't cause alarm, she said. Still, Partridge said young women should be familiar with their breasts and see the doctor if they notice any lumps or other changes.

Software engineer Stephanie Carson discovered a large breast tumor that had already spread to her lungs; that diagnosis in 2003 was a huge shock.

"I was so clueless," she said. "I was just 29 and that was the last thing on my mind."

Carson, who lives near St. Louis, had a mastectomy, chemotherapy, radiation and other treatments and she frequently has to try new drugs to keep the cancer at bay.

Because most breast cancer is diagnosed in early stages, there's a misconception that women are treated, and then get on with their lives, Carson said. She and her husband had to abandon hopes of having children, and she's on medical leave from her job.

"It changed the complete course of my life," she said. "But it's still a good life."

____

Online:

JAMA: http://jama.ama-assn.org

CDC: http://www.cdc.gov/cancer/breast/index.htm

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IHT Rendezvous: Thank you, Xiexie, Namaste: a Movie Undercuts Old Rivalries

BEIJING — After the Taiwan-born film director Ang Lee won big at the Oscars on Sunday evening in Los Angeles, including scooping Best Director for “Life of Pi,” he effusively thanked his place of birth. But his thanks didn’t make it into China, at least not via the official media.

Why? At almost the same time as Mr. Lee’s speech there was a meeting in Beijing between Xi Jinping, the head of China’s Communist Party, and Lien Chan, the honorary chairman of Taiwan’s Kuomintang party, the latest twist in a political rivalry now dating back 64 years to the end of the Chinese civil war in 1949, when the Kuomintang fled to Taiwan and set up the Republic of China. Communist Party-run China, the People’s Republic of China, still claims Taiwan and has not dropped threats to take it by force, if necessary. Even for Xinhua to quote Mr. Lee thanking Taiwan would be to unacceptably recognize the de facto reality that Taiwan is a separate state.

It’s all deep politics, with Mr. Lee’s victory bound to lead to a debate about whether Mr. Lee is “Chinese or not.” Mr. Lee, who has never denied he is culturally Chinese and appears keen to work in and with the mainland of China, is known to be proud of his Taiwan roots and sees himself as an internationalist.

In its account of the event, Xinhua, the official news agency, merely described him as “Coming from China’s Taiwan”, which fits into China’s ongoing claims.

Here’s what Mr. Lee said about Taiwan: “I cannot make this movie without the help of Taiwan. We shot there. I want to thank everybody there helped us. Especially the city of Tai Chong.” He went on to thank “My family in Taiwan.”

In another story, Xinhua also left out Mr. Lee’s thanks to Taiwan, quoting only this version of his words: “Thank you, movie God. I really need to share this with all 3,000, everybody who worked with me in ‘Life of Pi’, I want to thank you for, I really want to thank you for believing this story, and sharing this incredible journey with me. Thank you, Academy, xie xie, namaste.”

Readers of the Taipei Times, however, learned also that backstage, “Lee thanked his home country, where he said 90 percent of the film was shot. ‘They gave us a lot of physical help and financial help,’ he said. ‘I’m glad that Taiwan contribute this much to the film. I feel like this movie belongs to the world,’” he said in a story carried by the Taiwan newspaper.

As the Taipei Times cited Mr. Lien as saying in the meeting with Mr. Xi, “core issues” remain unresolved. Taiwan and China can work out a reasonable arrangement, Mr. Lian said, according to the newspaper, sounding pragmatic.

Mr. Xi’s had a different, more dramatic take of the situation, speaking of China and Taiwan working together for the “great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation,” in the China Daily’s words, reflecting speeches he has made frequently since becoming party leader.

Meanwhile, Mr. Lee offered something completely different in his speech: a multicultural, multilingual salutation that reflected the deeply globalized nature of his movie, which explores human survival, animals, and religions.

“Thank you, Academy. Xie xie, Namaste,” he said, in English, Mandarin Chinese and Hindi.

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